Taiwan tensions poised to be primary flashpoint of Donald Trump’s Beijing agenda
Analysts say they expect ‘exceptionally intense’ strategic manoeuvring on Taipei when US president and Xi Jinping meet in April
They also warned there was little chance the powers would make headway on nuclear arms control – an increasingly important fault line in bilateral ties – during Trump’s visit.
During the two-hour exchange, the Chinese leader also expressed his readiness to work with the American president to “accomplish more big things and good things” in China-US relations this year.
Still, Xi sent a warning message to Trump that “the US must handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with prudence”.
Xin Qiang, deputy director of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said Taiwan was likely to be discussed in detail during Trump’s trip to Beijing.
“China expects a clear policy stance from Washington. Beijing might even push Trump for a shift in rhetoric – moving from the standard ‘does not support’ Taiwan independence to explicitly ‘opposing’ it,” he said.
“While such a major policy concession from the US is difficult, this will undoubtedly be the most critical and contentious focal point of the summit.”
Wu Xinbo, director of Fudan’s Centre for American Studies and dean of its Institute of International Studies, said that strategic manoeuvring between Beijing and Washington on Taiwan would be “exceptionally intense”.
“The US needs to make clear declarations on the Taiwan issue and, more importantly, stay true to its word and honour its commitments,” Wu said.
He added that consistency was needed both before and after Trump’s visit if Washington expected Xi to attend the Group of 20 (G20) summit later this year in Miami, Florida.
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Since 1949, Taiwan has been one of the most persistent sources of friction between Beijing and Washington.
The issue even threatened to derail the US president’s visit after the Trump administration unveiled a record US$11 billion arms sale to Taiwan in December. The deal led to a sharp backlash from Beijing, which imposed sanctions against 20 US defence firms and 10 industry executives in retaliation.
Washington is reportedly putting together another package of Patriot missiles and other weapons for the island valued at up to US$20 billion.
He added that Trump’s unpredictability made it possible he could announce another massive arms sale to Taipei immediately after his visit to China.
Meanwhile, US lawmakers have continued to signal support for Taipei. The US House of Representatives on Monday passed the bipartisan Protect Taiwan Act by a vote of 395–2.
The measure would require US federal entities to work to exclude Beijing “to the maximum extent practicable” from six international financial bodies if the US president determines that mainland China’s actions threaten Taiwan and endanger US interests.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
China and the US are poised to extend an uneasy trade truce struck in October.
Following his phone conversation with Xi last week, Trump shared that Beijing was considering buying more soybeans from the US and that they had discussed China’s purchase of American oil and gas.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on Monday that senior staff from his department had visited China last week to discuss preparations for the next round of high-level trade talks between the world’s two biggest economies.
Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University, said one of the most prominent issues of Trump’s April visit would be whether Beijing and Washington could reach an agreement on their bilateral trade war.
He noted that the White House had already achieved trade deals with a number of countries, including India.
“From China’s perspective, while we of course oppose unilateralism and trade protectionism, both sides still need to reach an agreement to at least turn the page on current tensions on economic and trade issues,” Zhu added.
He said that China and the US had found common ground on several geopolitical flashpoints, pointing to Beijing’s calls for peace negotiations and a quick ceasefire in Ukraine in addition to its support for dialogue between the US and Iran.
A few minutes before Trump’s October meeting with Xi, the US commander-in-chief said he would “immediately” resume American nuclear weapons testing, citing Beijing and Moscow’s rapid nuclear build-up.
But China’s nuclear arsenal remains far smaller than those of the US and Russia. Beijing has long regarded its inclusion in nuclear arms control negotiations with the White House and the Kremlin as a non-starter.
Sun Chenghao, a fellow with the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said that although Trump had repeatedly spoken of bringing China into nuclear talks, there was no indication that Washington had put forward a workable proposal for dialogue.
“If the US is serious, it should first focus on a more realistic bilateral risk-reduction agenda with China,” he said.
“If Washington continues to frame trilateral disarmament as a means of pressuring Beijing, China is more likely to view it as a political instrument rather than a serious arms control agenda.”
Additional reporting by Bochen Han